PrecisionTree
PrecisionTree performs decision analysis in Microsoft Excel using decision trees and influence diagrams. Decision trees let you visually map out complex, multi-layered decisions in a sequential, organised manner. This helps you identify all possible alternatives and choose the best option. New PrecisionTree has been rewritten with a more streamlined interface and robust new analyses.
Excel Ease of Use
PrecisionTree is a true add-in to Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyse-while never leaving Excel. PrecisionTree nodes, branches, and arcs are placed directly in your model, and values appear in the formula bar. Context-sensitive right-click menus and the PrecisionTree toolbar make learning and navigating PrecisionTree a snap.
How PrecisionTree Works
Build a Decision Tree - Decision trees provide a formal structure in which decisions and chance events are linked in sequence from left to right. Decisions, chance events, and end results are represented by nodes and connected by branches. The result is a tree structure with the "root" on the left and various payoffs on the right. Probabilities of events occurring and payoffs for events and decisions are added to each node in the tree. With PrecisionTree, you'll see the payoff and probability of each possible path through a tree.
You can add PrecisionTree functions to any cell in a spreadsheet and can include arguments that are cell references and expressions - allowing great flexibility in defining decision models. You can also collapse and restore branches to the right of any given node for simplicity and easier navigation through the tree.
Analyse Your Results - PrecisionTree determines the best decision to make at each decision node and marks the branch for that decision TRUE. Once your decision tree is complete, PrecisionTree's decision analysis creates a full statistics report on the best decision to make and its comparison with alternative decisions.
PrecisionTree can create a Risk Profile graph that compares the payoffs and risk of different decision options. It displays probability and cumulative charts showing the probabilities of different outcomes and of an outcome less than or equal to a certain value.
PrecisionTree can also perform a sensitivity analysis by modifying the values of the variables you specify and recording the changes in the expected value of the tree. You can change one or two variables at a time. Results include sensitivity, tornado, spider, and strategy-region graphs.
Two Editions to Meet Your Needs
| PrecisionTree Professional | PrecisionTree Industrial | |
| Decision trees | X | X |
| Influence diagrams | X | X |
| Risk profile reports | X | X |
| Sensitivity analysis | X | X |
| Compatibility with @RISK | X | X |
| Variety of advanced features | X | X |
| Policy Suggestion Report | X | |
| Strategy Region Graphs | X | |
| Number of Tree Nodes | 1000 | Unlimited |
Designed for your largest, most complex models, PrecisionTree Industrial adds the following features:
Policy Suggestion Report - A reduced version of the decision tree that displays only the optimum decisions in your model. It includes a Policy Decision Table which lists each decision in a model, the probability of arriving at that decision, and the benefit of making the correct choice for that decision.
Strategy Region Graphs - One-Way Strategy Region graphs display the expected values for each decision over the range of one variable. Two-Way Strategy Region graphs show you which decision is optimal over the range of two variables.
Unlimited tree nodes - For your largest models, PrecisionTree Industrial allows decision trees of unlimited size.
PrecisionTree Features & Benefits
| Features | Benefits |
| Decision trees | Visually understand a decision, identify best options, and communicate results to others |
| Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel | Never leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly |
| Intuitive toolbars and right-click menus | Easy navigation - multiple ways to perform common tasks |
| Risk profile reports | Shows payoffs and risks of different options |
| Sensitivity analysis | Identifies most influential variables in a decision |
| Policy Suggestion Report | Shows optimal decisions and payoffs |
| Strategy Region Graphs | Displays value of decisions over ranges of 1 or 2 variables |
| Reference nodes and collapsible branches | Streamline large trees for easy navigation |
| Logic nodes | Allows conditional modeling |
| Linked trees and VBA payoff calculations | Allows complex payoff computations outside of the tree itself |
| Utility functions | Account for decision maker's attitude toward risk when calculating the best decision |
| PrecisionTree Developer Kit | Automate and customise PrecisionTree with Excel VBA |
| Compatibility with @RISK | Account for uncertainty and run Monte Carlo simulations to see all possible outcomes in your tree |
| Influence diagrams | Visually summarise a decision |
Part of the DecisionTools Suite
PrecisionTree is available by itself or as part of the DecisionTools Suite, Palisade's complete risk and decision analysis toolkit. The DecisionTools Suite includes @RISK, which adds risk analysis to Excel using Monte Carlo simulation. Using @RISK with PrecisionTree, you can assign probability distribution functions to represent uncertain chance events or payoffs in PrecisionTree nodes. Then run a Monte Carlo simulation on your decision tree to see more possible outcomes of your decision than you could with static tree values alone.
PrecisionTree also works with another DecisionTools-TopRank. TopRank performs more thorough sensitivity analysis on your tree.
100% Excel
PrecisionTree calculations are performed 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when?
Compatibility: PrecisionTree is compatible with Excel versions 2000 through 2007
Read more about PrecisionTree at www.palisade.com.