The latest composite leading indicator of economic activity compiled by the South African Reserve Bank, showed some improvement in August 2014 compared with July. Measured on a year ago, the change in this indicator was also slightly positive at 0.1% - the first upward move in the index since October last year. However, recent figures still suggest a very volatile environment for our probability indicator—even after smoothing. Using data up to August 2014, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had risen to more than 47%.
What is the Monthly Economic Indicator Overview?
A monthly overview of some important economic indicators. The latest leading indicator release of the SA Reserve Bank is discussed and a recession probability inidcator is calculated. Interest rate developments, inflation, liquidationsa, insolvencies, retail sales and mining and manufacturing production developments and trends are also shown and briefly discussed. Tables of key international and monthly inicators are also provided. Document size: 8 pages.
View the complete report
Visit www.easydata.co.za to download the complete report in PDF.