The latest composite leading indicator of economic activity compiled by the South African Reserve Bank, again showed a deterioration in September 2014 compared with August. After two months of positive year-on-year increases, the leading indicator registered –0.5% y/y. Recent figures suggest a very volatile environment for our probability indicator—even after smoothing. However, using data up to September 2014, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had subsided somewhat to 42.8% compared with the more than 47% which was calculated in August.
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