The latest composite leading indicator of economic activity compiled by the South African Reserve Bank, showed an improvement of 0.9% in November 2014 compared with October. However, based on a year ago, the index is still declining, and it has been declining for thirteen months in a row. Recent figures still suggest a volatile environment for our probability indicator—even after smoothing. However, using data up to November 2014, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had subsided somewhat to 39% compared with the more than 45% which was calculated in August.
How do I access the report?
For a limited time, the report is available at no cost. To view and download the report in PDF, visit www.easydata.co.za and register for a free account.