The latest composite leading indicator of economic activity compiled by the South African Reserve Bank, showed a slight uptick of 0.3% in January 2015 compared with December 2014. Based on a year ago, the index again declined (by 2.1%), and it has been doing so for the past fifteen months already.
Recent figures still suggest a volatile environment for our probability indicator—even after smoothing. However, using data up to January 2015, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had subsided to 32% compared with the more than 50% (point estimates) which was calculated in May and June of last year.
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