The composite leading business cycle indicator decreased by 1.7% on a month-to-month basis in May 2015. Seven of the ten component time series that were available for May 2015 decreased, while three increased. Measured on a year-on-year basis, the index was down by 3.4%. The coincident indicator for April 2015 was up by 1.1% y/y. Recent figures suggest a slight deterioration in our recession probability indicator. Using smoothed data up to end-May 2015, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had risen to around 33% from around 22% measured earlier in 2015.
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