We foresee the deepest recession since the 1920s and a protracted recovery back to the pre-pandemic real GDP level. Some analysts predict a V-shaped recovery, but we remain less convinced of such an outcome. Some production capacity has probably been lost permanently and could either take much longer to be re-established or would have to be substituted by higher imports. Either way, the growing pressure on domestic savings and fixed investment, along with severe pressures accumulating around the fiscal situation, are likely to be with us for some time to come. This will limit future economic growth prospects – especially if the state continues with its socialist and interventionist policy orientation.
Subscribers to EasyData can download the complete report in PDF format on www.easydata.co.za.