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Q4 2025 • Quarterly Provincial GDP Estimates • 11 March 2026
South Africa's real GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, bringing full-year growth to 1.5% year-on-year. While modest, the result marks a fourth consecutive quarter of expansion — a sign of gradual resilience in an economy navigating elevated borrowing costs, constrained consumer spending, and persistent infrastructure headwinds.
Gauteng, as South Africa's largest provincial economy, recorded GDP of R1.60 trillion (constant 2015 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) in Q4 2025 — up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year.
Figure 1: Gauteng real GDP, quarterly (constant 2015 prices, SAAR)
Provincial Breakdown
Gauteng remains the undisputed engine of the South African economy, contributing 33.7% of national GDP in Q4 2025. KwaZulu-Natal (16.6%) and the Western Cape (14.3%) round out the top three, together accounting for nearly two-thirds of total output. The Northern Cape remains the smallest provincial economy at 2.1% of national GDP.
Figure 2: Provincial GDP, Q4 2025 (constant 2015 prices, SAAR)
Industry Detail by Province
RGDP goes beyond the provincial headline — it also breaks GDP down into 10 industries for each province, enabling a granular view of where growth is concentrated:
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing
- Mining and quarrying
- Manufacturing
- Electricity and water
- Construction
- Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants
- Transport, storage and communication
- Finance, real estate and business services
- Community, social and other personal services
- General government services
For Gauteng, this means being able to track the quarterly performance of its dominant finance and business services sector alongside construction, manufacturing, and trade — all on a quarterly basis, by province.
How Is This Estimate Produced?
The RGDP dataset is a Quantec product that bridges two official Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) publications:
- P0441 – National Accounts and GDP: Released quarterly by Stats SA, this is the authoritative national GDP figure. It provides a timely, high-frequency read on the economy but carries no provincial breakdown.
- P0441R – Provincial GDP Experimental Estimates: Also published by Stats SA, this provides an official provincial breakdown of GDP — including Gauteng's share. However, it is released annually only, with a significant lag — the most recent release covers 2024.
Quantec uses econometric methods to reconcile these two sources: the annual provincial shares from P0441R are estimated at a quarterly frequency, then scaled to ensure they always sum to the official national total from P0441. The result is a quarterly provincial GDP series — RGDP — that is both timely and internally consistent.
The chart below illustrates this for Gauteng. The solid blue line is P0441 (quarterly national GDP), the orange diamonds are P0441R (Gauteng annual GDP), and the green dashed line is Quantec's RGDP for Gauteng. Note how the RGDP quarterly series tracks the annual P0441R anchors, while extending Gauteng's provincial detail to Q4 2025 — a full year beyond the latest P0441R release.
Figure 3: P0441 (quarterly national), P0441R (annual Gauteng) and RGDP (quarterly Gauteng)
Notes
- All values are in constant 2015 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised (R millions).
- Provincial shares are consistent with the latest official Stats SA P0441R release (2024).
- RGDP dataset last updated: 11 March 2026.
Explore the full dataset on EasyData: Quarterly Provincial GDP Estimates (RGDP)