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South Africa Economic Indicators (Monthly Report)

A monthly overview of some important economic indicators. The latest leading indicator release of the SA Reserve Bank is discussed and a recession probability indicator is calculated. Interest rate developments, inflation, liquidations, insolvencies, retail sales and mining and manufacturing production developments and trends are also shown and briefly discussed. Tables of key international and monthly indicators are also provided.


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South Africa Economic Indicator — January 2021 Report

11 January 2021

Since around mid-2020, prices on domestic and international equity markets have shown some strong upward movement.

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South Africa Economic Indicator — November 2020 Report

09 November 2020

With the US elections generally supporting risky assets, the rand has recently outpaced peers as the best performer among the group of major emerging market currencies.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - July 2020

08 July 2020

As was expected, South Africa experienced another quarter-on-quarter contraction (the third in a row) during the first quarter of 2020.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - June 2020

05 June 2020

We foresee the deepest recession since the 1920s and a protracted recovery back to the pre-pandemic real GDP level.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - May 2020

08 May 2020

Following the imposition of strict lockdown measures in March, followed by a 2-weeks extension, and followed by a phasing out strategy where most measures remain extremely strict, the economy is expected to be shrink between 10% and 20% in 2020.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - April 2020

08 April 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak and Moody’s sovereign credit risk downgrade to junk status, are sure to have dramatic effects on the South African economy over the next few months.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - March 2020

03 March 2020

Most analysts and economists have welcomed the main gist of the 2020 budget outlined by finance minister Tito Mboweni, particularly for its bold attempt to cut expenditure on public sector wages.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - January 2020

20 January 2020

It is unlikely that the small drop in interest rates announced by the MPC at the conclusion of their latest meeting will materially stimulate investment or capital formation in the absence of improved policy direction and execution.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - December 2019

12 December 2019

The economy contracted by a shocking 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualised (saar) rate in the third quarter of 2019.

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South Africa Economic Indicator (Monthly Report) - November 2019

06 November 2019

Moody’s has effectively given the government just over three months – till the next Budget In February 2020 – to stabilise government debt and deal with high-risk state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

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