A monthly overview of some important economic indicators. The latest leading indicator release of the SA Reserve Bank is discussed and a recession probability indicator is calculated. Interest rate developments, inflation, liquidations, insolvencies, retail sales and mining and manufacturing production developments and trends are also shown and briefly discussed. Tables of key international and monthly indicators are also provided.
08 July 2020
As was expected, South Africa experienced another quarter-on-quarter contraction (the third in a row) during the first quarter of 2020.
05 June 2020
We foresee the deepest recession since the 1920s and a protracted recovery back to the pre-pandemic real GDP level.
08 May 2020
Following the imposition of strict lockdown measures in March, followed by a 2-weeks extension, and followed by a phasing out strategy where most measures remain extremely strict, the economy is expected to be shrink between 10% and 20% in 2020.
08 April 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak and Moody’s sovereign credit risk downgrade to junk status, are sure to have dramatic effects on the South African economy over the next few months.
03 March 2020
Most analysts and economists have welcomed the main gist of the 2020 budget outlined by finance minister Tito Mboweni, particularly for its bold attempt to cut expenditure on public sector wages.
20 January 2020
It is unlikely that the small drop in interest rates announced by the MPC at the conclusion of their latest meeting will materially stimulate investment or capital formation in the absence of improved policy direction and execution.
12 December 2019
The economy contracted by a shocking 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualised (saar) rate in the third quarter of 2019.
06 November 2019
Moody’s has effectively given the government just over three months – till the next Budget In February 2020 – to stabilise government debt and deal with high-risk state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
02 October 2019
A mid slowing global growth and rising trade tensions, several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, have been easing monetary policy.
09 September 2019
The rand and local bond markets responded positively to the upside growth surprise.
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South Africa Money and Credit Market Trends & Forecasts (Quarterly Report) – September 2020 - 08 Sep 2020
